The Body Temperature Gauge Theory - Why do you get a flu or cold?

I am something of a philosopher and tinkerer.  And from time to time I have an idea that I need to put forward, despite my lack of subject matter expertise, just as an observer of reality.  I encourage anyone who is better equipped to engage and complete the theory - or explain why they refute it.

I would like to share with you my theory on why people get sick during "the flu season" based on the observation of my own personal brush with illness and moving between climates. I call it the Body Temperature Gauge Theory.  I capitalized it to make it look more important. But it's just a theory.

As a control systems engineer, I know that you can model any system as a set of inputs and outputs, and if you are lucky or hard working you can construct a model of the inside system dynamics that can explain why the inputs reach the outputs for a large region of the state space.

If you didn't understand any of that, no problem, I don't fully understand it either but just go with me here. 

Let me bring forward my experience in changing weather from my own journey across Alberta.  I have moved over the timeframe of 14 years from Edmonton Alberta, to Calgary, and then to Medicine Hat.  Calgary is about 300 km south of Edmonton, and Medicine Hat is about 300 km south east of Calgary.  In those moves I have crossed some isothermal - or weather pattern - topology where the seasons operate differently from place to place.  In general, it gets warmer longer the more south I went.

The winter in Edmonton that, on average, lasts about 6 months continually,has a temperature pattern where the temperature dips down below freezing and stays there from about mid- October to mid March. There are brief periods of warmer weather, but those are few and far between.  And the lowest temperature will make you feel like the Arctic circle is next door.  As a side note, Edmonton is the most northerly - if that's a word - city on the planet. The temperature changes slowest of the three places I am referring to.

Calgary winter weather varies somewhat from Edmonton.  Calgary has a winter season that is almost as long but it undergoes a weather pattern we call a chinook.  Chinook weather is when the wind off the Pacific ocean dominates the high pressure Arctic air and then the lower half of Alberta, even in winter, warms up above freezing for a period of time.  Calgary normally has about 5 months of winter, from end October to March, and on an average of every two to three weeks, there is a brief period of warm weather.  This weather has gotten so warm that all the snow can melt. People start appearing from their houses, and some people go without coats. This weather moves in off the Rocky Mountains - normally in the form of inverted clouds and warmer breezes.

Medicine Hat is further south and the weather during winter is even more mild.  Medicine Hat, from my 7 years of experience, has even more drastic weather changes and the time it takes to change is by far the most abrupt.  During some winters, the temperature climbs to 20 degrees C.  I have been outside on my patio using my barbeque in shorts in the middle of January! The weather changes very quickly. I have heard stories of people driving back from Suffield to Medicine Hat that had icicles and frosted mirrors in Suffield, 32 km away, but as they neared town that temperature turned to above freezing and suddenly windows are fogged and the icicles are dropping off.

Based on that input, would it surprise you to know that I have been the sickest - or sick more often - in Medicine Hat?  I was sick more often in Calgary than Edmonton.  I was also sick more often in Medicine Hat than Calgary.

It is important to know that I am not from Alberta, I moved here when the Army closed the Chilliwack British Columbia (BC) army base in 1996.  I used to live in Abbotsford, or Vancouver BC area where the Olympics is going on. In BC true winter is about a 2 month long timeframe and the rest of the year is liquid sunshine, or rain. So when I grew up I didn't experience the very long cold winter or the rapid changes in climate. So along with other things like age, diet, and stress, those are two factors that are the independent variables in question: the length of the winter and the differential in temperature - or the temperature acceleration.

So the output of rapidly changing weather patterns is more times when my body's immune system was compromised and I got sick with colds and flus. Right now I am fighting off a virus I picked up in January.

So here is my theory:  You are most likely to get sick when your core body temperature fluctuates rapidly than when your core body temperature changes gradually.

Perhaps someone has already made a thesis about this. I would hope that if that is the case, that person communicated that to the rest of the world.

If not, then here is the simple layman's theory.

I would argue that it is not the length of the winter that is important, flu season varies from climate to climate and always appears on the ends of winter - Fall and Spring - which could also be interepreted as the two time points when the temperature acceleration is the greatest. It is also important to point out that I believe that it does not matter if the temperature is going up or down, but that it varies rapidly. 

This sort of phenomenon has been known by the Inuit people for a long time; when they work outside in the winter they know not to work so hard that they sweat.  If they sweat then their core body is wet and the cold air will rapidly freeze their bodies.  It would appear to me that this is a long held theory that may not have been presented formally up to this point.

And here is the strangest part of the theory; I believe that my sickness problems are also based on where I grew up.  I know that people that were born here and have lived here all their lives do not get as many colds and flus as I do.  So I would argue that it is also linked to how my body learned to cope with changing temperatures - how quickly my internal thermometer knew to increase heating  or stop heating in the face of changing temperatures.

I think that the best way to avoid illnesses then is to make sure in Fall and again in Spring that you be aware of your body temperature and make sure you have enough clothing and enough layers to accomodate those rapid changes. Of course, all the doctors advice about eating right, exercising, and washing your hands is important. But from my experience watching your own temperature guage is important too!